Brent crude has drifted into the low-$60s, a price corridor OPEC+ has spent the better part of two years trying to defend through disciplined supply management. Yet the market’s center of gravity is shifting. Independent forecasts now point to a looming surplus of 2.1–4 million barrels per day in early 2026. Against that backdrop, OPEC+ has chosen what it calls a “strategic pause,” rolling over production quotas rather than deepening cuts. The decision is meant to stabilize prices. But it raises a more fundamental question:…
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