Bitumen market conditions across Sub-Saharan Africa were mixed during the week. Heavy rainfall in Southern Africa and delayed government payments to road contractors in Nigeria constrained activity, while demand in East Africa particularly Kenya continued to rise steadily. Cargo import prices increased in West Africa, driven by higher Mediterranean HSFO values and strong inflows from international suppliers. Meanwhile, domestic truck prices in South Africa and Nigeria edged lower, and Iranian export prices to East Africa remained largely stable.
Nigeria
Project activity and bitumen demand in Nigeria remained relatively strong during the dry season; however, delayed government payments significantly slowed execution on several road and infrastructure projects.
Some contractors indicated that work would only continue once outstanding payments are settled, raising the likelihood of imported cargoes being held in storage rather than immediately consumed.
Nigeria continued to receive heavy import volumes.
A major cargo shipped by Trafigura aboard the Star River is expected to be discharged via multiple ship-to-ship (STS) operations into Gradient Bitumen’s Warri terminal. Additional cargoes from international suppliers also remained active, partly compensating for reduced regional exports.
Domestic truck prices in Nigeria softened slightly, with ex-works levels around NGN 1.2 million per tonne. The recent strengthening of the naira against the US dollar helped limit further price declines despite easing demand.
Ivory Coast
Bitumen export flows from Ivory Coast were constrained ahead of a planned maintenance shutdown at the SMB Abidjan refinery, scheduled from late January through at least the end of February.
This outage significantly reduced export availability and contributed to increased reliance on imports elsewhere in West Africa.
Export premiums for Ivory Coast cargoes declined slightly due to seasonal factors and increased availability earlier in the month, but the broader impact of the refinery shutdown is expected to tighten regional supply in the near term.
Ghana
Import prices into Ghana rose in line with broader West African trends, reflecting higher cargo costs linked to Mediterranean HSFO values. Supply into the Takoradi and Tema terminals remained steady, supported by shipments from both regional and international sources.
Kenya
Bitumen demand in Kenya continued to rise, supported by increasing road and highway project activity.
Market participants expect construction work to accelerate further through 2026 and into 2027, ahead of the country’s general elections.
Domestic truck prices remained firm.
Drummed bitumen prices were reported in the range of KES 92–96/kg ex-works Mombasa, while bulk truck sales were assessed higher.
Steady offtake during January confirmed Kenya’s role as the strongest demand center in East Africa.
Tanzania
Import prices for drummed bitumen into Tanzania remained stable, with no major changes reported during the week.
Freight rates from the Middle East Gulf to Dar es Salaam were unchanged, and supplier interest remained consistent, although demand growth was slower than in Kenya.
South Africa
Bitumen market activity in South Africa weakened as heavy and persistent rainfall disrupted construction work, particularly around Durban.
At the same time, significant import volumes arrived or were scheduled to arrive, raising concerns over short-term oversupply.
Domestic truck prices declined by approximately ZAR 100 per tonne, with some imported material offered below prevailing ex-works levels. Storage capacity in Durban was increasingly stretched as cargoes discharged ahead of the peak summer demand period.
Outlook
In the near term, West African markets are expected to remain well supplied, particularly Nigeria, although payment delays may continue to restrict actual consumption.
The Ivory Coast refinery shutdown is likely to tighten regional export availability and support import demand.
East Africa is set to remain the strongest demand region, led by Kenya’s expanding infrastructure pipeline.
In Southern Africa, weather conditions and inventory levels will be key drivers.
Any improvement in rainfall patterns could quickly translate into stronger demand, but short-term oversupply risks remain elevated.
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