Every cycle produces its own comforting myth, for 2026, that is the “inevitable oil glut.” The reasoning behind that is mainly that crude oil producers are pumping more, Iran is still exporting despite sanctions pressure, and the market expects OPEC+ to edge toward output hikes. The current story in the market still is that surplus is building and prices must eventually fall. When, however, looking at the physical market, the latter is bluntly refusing the script. There are no real signs, at least for a longer period, that the tanks…
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