Oil prices are notoriously difficult to forecast. The market has a long history of humbling anyone who speaks with too much certainty. There are just too many complex variables involved. At the end of 2025, the prevailing narrative was that a surplus of oil was in store for 2026. Several major banks and forecasting agencies expected global supply to exceed demand by multiple millions of barrels per day. Some projections—including those from JPMorgan Chase—anticipated Brent crude drifting into the $60 range by mid-2026. How quickly things…
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