The present analysis conducted by Bloomberg provides an estimation of the prospective recession status of 20 of the leading global economies, projected for the year 2023. As per the report, the likelihood of a recession in select countries is outlined as follows: the United Kingdom with a probability of 75%, the United States with a degree of probability at 65%, China with a probability of 12.5%, and India with nearly negligible probability.
According to the findings of this research, it is anticipated that no fewer than ten significant economic powers are likely to encounter a recession exceeding fifty percent by the year 2023. Given the information provided in the aforementioned report, as well as the preceding affirmative reports emanating from China, the prospect of an imminent global economic recession persists. In light of this, the latest Oilprice report posits that the sustained decline in crude oil prices may be ascribed to apprehensions pertaining to the demand for the said commodity.
Within the initial three days of the present week, there was a decrease of approximately 14 USD in Singapore’s HSFO CST180 and a decline of up to 81 USD in Brent crude oil on Thursday.
On the 19th of April, parity was retained for the bulk bitumen exchanges in Singapore and South Korea at values of 470 and 420 USD, correspondingly.
The recorded price of bitumen in Bahrain was 370 USD, further indicating that Europe has a more favorable situation in comparison to that of East Asia.
The Indian bitumen market experienced a surge in the price of 16.5 USD on April 15th. Nonetheless, reports suggest an insufficiency in the Indian bitumen market, prompting a potential adjustment in pricing destined for May 1, 2023.
During the final week of the Ramadan month, Iranian refineries engaged in a competitive bidding process for vacuum bottom at a level of approximately 88%. Concurrently, the exchange rate exhibited stability, holding within the range of 500,000 Rial. Consequently, the bitumen market in Iran witnessed a prolonged period of competitive pressure and currency fluctuations, lasting for six weeks.
Conversely, it is highly anticipated that there will be an inclining trend in the price of vacuum bottoms in Iran on the 24th of April.
In reference to the upcoming monsoon season in India and other countries, it is crucial to monitor the market trend after the conclusion of the Muslim holiday season. Therefore, it is advisable for market participants to closely track market fluctuations.
This article was prepared by Shirin Yousefi, the Content specialist and market analyst of Infinity Galaxy.