The stock market spent the first week of the Iran war doing something strange: mostly shrugging. Oil spiked. Insurance markets effectively collapsed. Amazon had two data centers blown up. And the Nasdaq dipped, steadied, and the conversation shifted within days to whether the Fed might still cut in June. The prevailing read was: disruption, yes. Catastrophe, no. This thing will be over soon. I think that read is wrong. And wrong in a specific, structural way, not because the war will necessarily escalate further, but because the damage…
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