In the past week, as Brent crude oil prices fell and then slightly rose, the cost of bitumen decreased across all markets stretching from Europe to East Asia.
Over the past week, Syria has reintegrated into the Arab League after an extended hiatus of 12 years. The aforementioned situation may result in the resolution of one of the most consequential conflicts occurring within the regions of the Middle East and North Africa. The ultimate impact of this aforementioned return on the political and economic stability in the Middle East warrants further observation and analysis over an extended period to draw conclusive determinations.
According to a separate report, domestic tourism in China attained its peak level before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, during the five-day holiday period commencing in May. The aforementioned trend, coupled with the modest advances in China’s economic growth, may serve as an indication of ameliorated economic circumstances for the world’s second major economic force.
In recent days, following a decrease in the value of Brent crude oil to approximately 70 USD and subsequent fluctuation resulting in a rise to around 78 USD, it has been observed that bitumen prices have experienced a decrease across various markets spanning from Europe to East Asia. The Bitumen pricing trends in Singapore and South Korea have achieved stability as a consequence of the imposition of constraints on demand. It appears that the primary refineries operating in East Asia will experience a decrease in production during June, adding the possibility of a surge in prices.
The present analysis indicates that the prevailing valuation for Brent crude oil is expected to fall within the spectrum of 71-80 USD, notwithstanding the favorable concessions offered by Saudi Arabia to their clientele and the augmented volume of Russia’s oil exports. It is important to bear in mind that this forecast is subject to change given the volatility and unpredictability of the energy market.
Oil market prices in the Middle Eastern countries
Over the initial three days of the previous week, the price of Singapore’s HSFO CST180 rose approximately by 37 USD, effectively countering the declines observed within the previous fortnight. Furthermore, it should be noted that on the 10th of May, the Singapore bulk bitumen price experienced a notable increase of 5 USD ultimately achieving a value of 480 USD. The price of bitumen in South Korea was reported to be approximately 430 USD.
The cost of bitumen in Bahrain has sustained stability at a rate of 370 USD.
The anticipated decline of 7-9 USD in the price of bitumen in India is attributed to several factors, including heightened domestic refinery production, the onset of monsoon conditions in select Indian regions, an influx of imported bitumen from Iran, and the halting of multiple projects within the nation.
The present situation suggests that Iran is grappling with a predicament of oscillating prices, whereby its prices align with the fluctuations in the price of oil. In recent days, despite an increase in the equity of the Rial to the US dollar and a decline of up to 40% in market competition, the bitumen market in Iran has yet to establish a clear direction. Bitumen prices will likely continue to be influenced by fluctuations in global prices. It is improbable that any significant alterations in bitumen prices in Iran will be observed in the upcoming week.
