In Iran, the new president began his term on July 31 and is set to introduce his cabinet soon. After the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the dollar-to-rial exchange rate increased, causing market uncertainty.
The assassination of Hezbollah’s second-in-command at the Lebanon border and the simultaneous killing of the head of Hamas’s political bureau in Tehran by Israel caused oil prices to surge by about $4 by Thursday, August 1, reversing a seven-week low. This escalation in Middle East tensions heightened concerns over weak demand in China.
Additionally, a 0.4% decline in the U.S. dollar index supported oil prices, as a weaker dollar makes dollar-priced commodities like oil cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ head ministers held a JMMC meeting on Thursday to assess the global oil situation.
China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, reported a reduction in fuel demand, affecting the oil market. On Wednesday, official statistics revealed that China’s production activities decreased in July for the third consecutive month.
Furthermore, the New York Times reported on Thursday that sources suggested Iran might retaliate against Israel for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, potentially escalating tensions further.
The death of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior negotiator for peace in the region, diminished hopes for peace and ceasefire. Concurrently, with Kamala Harris entering the election in place of Biden, polls indicate a higher chance of her victory, a significant shift from previous predictions. It remains uncertain how Middle East tensions will impact the upcoming U.S. elections in 90 days.
On Thursday, Brent crude oil reached $80. Singapore’s CST180 closed at $482. Bitumen prices in Singapore and South Korea were $487 and $405, respectively. Bahrain bitumen remained stable at $450. In Europe, bitumen prices ranged from $450 to $500.
On July 31, India announced its largest bitumen price increase in 18 months, with bitumen VG30 and VG40 rising by $25 and $29, respectively. This surge exceeded expectations, surprising many traders as the monsoon season continues. It is anticipated that bitumen import volumes will rise again.
Economic Situation in Iran
In Iran, the new president officially began his term on Tuesday, July 31, and is expected to introduce his cabinet soon. Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Rial increased, leading to market uncertainty. Despite no competition recorded over the past week, the trend of prices appears to be rising based on overall conditions.
