As the title shows, we tend to talk about the bitumen price in Congo and
the effective variables in this regard. Generally speaking, the surplus of oil stocks, which had risen sharply during the Corona pandemic, has been almost
completely depleted as demand has increased in line with vaccination
programs in countries ranging from the United States to Europe, which
has contributed to road traffic. On the other hand, the decline in production
of OPEC and its allies, as well as US shale companies, was another factor. The International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration,
and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
all agree that the surplus oil stored in the OECD has disappeared.
Bitumen price in Congo and the variables
The surplus of trade inventories in these countries, which in June last year
was 270 million barrels more than the average of 2015 to 2019, is now almost normal. As a matter of fact, the surplus fell to just 36.9 million barrels in
March, according to the International Energy Agency’s monthly report. If we compare its volume with the average of 2016 to 2020, we will reach a
surplus of 1.7 million barrels, which is less than the capacity of a supercar. That was the goal set by Saudi Energy Minister Abdul Aziz bin Salman in January
to measure the success of producers in balancing the post-pandemic oil market. According to Bloomberg, however, declining inventories do not mean
that producer will open the valve quickly and flood the market with supply.
Bitumen price in Congo and the global decisions
According to the Agency and OPEC, demand in the second quarter of the year
will be 4 million barrels less than the same period in 2019, and the
Energy Information Administration has estimated a shortage of 3.4 million
barrels for this season. Additionally, a closer look at the outlook
offered by these institutions gives manufacturers reasons to be cautious.
Decreased annual demand estimates and the bitumen price in Congo
It’s needless to mention that the Paris-based agency, which advises most
major economies, in its latest report reduced demand in 2021 by 270,000
barrels per day from last year to 96.4 million barrels per day. “The outlook
for demand remains fragile,” Tori Bosoni, head of the International
Energy Agency’s oil markets division, told Bloomberg Television. The Energy Information Administration, with a slight reduction in its estimate, believes
that demand this year will be 97.7 million barrels per day, which shows
a growth of 4.5 million barrels per year, but is 3.7 million barrels less than in 2019.
According to the government, demand in 2022 will increase by an average
of 100,000 barrels per day compared to last month’s estimate of
101.4 million barrels per day on average. Nevertheless, OPEC did not
estimate oil demand last month and still believes that demand will
increase by 95.5 million barrels in 2021 to 96.460 million barrels per day.
Bitumen price in Congo and the oil refineries
The report’s optimism, despite warnings of “significant uncertainty,” is due to
a pandemic, as well as concerns about India’s situation affecting oil prices. “India is currently facing challenges related to COVID-19 and will therefore
have a negative impact on its recovery in the second quarter, but we expect it
to improve again in the second half of the year,” OPEC said in its monthly report. “Come back on your own.” The seven-day average number of fresh cases
in India reached a new high on Tuesday. Besides, oil refiners in the
country are reducing their refining rates.
Oil demand in the second season
For the current season, the agency was more pessimistic than other institutions. According to the agency, which represents consumer countries,
demand will face a temporary setback as India’s oil demand falls to
630,000 barrels per day in the second quarter and global demand falls by
more than half a million barrels. OPEC also lowered its demand estimate
for the second quarter to 300,000 barrels per day but increased its
demand estimate for the third and fourth seasons to 150,000 barrels
per day and 290,000 barrels per day, respectively.
Decreased US oil production estimates
The US Energy Information Administration predicts that the decline in US
oil production in 2021 will be greater than previously estimated by the agency. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that US crude oil
production will decline by 290,000 barrels per day in 2021 to 11.20 million
barrels per day, according to Shana, quoting Reuters. To be more specific, this decrease in production is greater than the previous estimate of this institution. In its previous estimate, the US Energy Information Administration had
announced a reduction in US production of 200,000 barrels per day in 2021. According to the agency, we expect US oil production to increase by
820,000 barrels per day in 2022 to 11 million. Furthermore, reach
840,000 barrels per day, which does not change from the previous estimate.
Bitumen price in Congo and the US oil
It’s needful to mention that the US Energy Information Administration expects
the consumption of US oil and other liquid fuels to increase by 1,390,000
barrels per day to 20,510,000 barrels per day by 2021. We previously
estimated this figure at 1,320,000 barrels per day. The agency expects US
gasoline consumption to be around 9 million barrels per day this summer,
from April to September, 1.2 million barrels per day more than last
summer and about 600,000 barrels per day less than in the summer of 2019.