Bitumen prices are projected to remain stable in 2025, supported by steady oil market conditions. Analysts predict Brent crude will average $76.61 per barrel, with global demand rising by 1–1.5 million barrels daily, despite a potential supply surplus from OPEC+ adjustments. China’s robust demand remains the primary stabilizing factor, while geopolitical risks are expected to have minimal market impact. These elements collectively indicate consistent bitumen price trends throughout the year.
Based on a Reuters survey in October 2024, Concerns about demand from China, visions of higher supply from key producers, and easing geopolitical risks might affect the oil price in 2025.
Forty economists and analysts participated in this survey. On average, they predicted Brent crude would be $76.61 per barrel in 2025.
The interview predicted that global oil demand will increase by 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025.
Most analysts believe that even if OPEC+ begins to unwind its production cuts in April 2025 based on its earlier plan, the market will see a surplus.
Geopolitical Risks
Overall, risks from geopolitical changes could be very limited in the experience of a real disruption. The point is that these changes can support gyrating markets and be a great selling opportunity.
As an example, the probability of Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities dropped Brent crude oil’s price by more than 9% for almost 4 weeks.
Tsvetana Paraskova, a writer from Oilprice, says analysts also believe that, under Donald Trump’s administration and stricter U.S. sanctions against Iran, it is expected that low demand will decrease oil prices in 2025.
Demands from China
According to another report from Oilprice, the oil market in 2024 was affected by chronic trader pessimism about Chinese demand and undervaluing risks of supply disruption. As a result, the market was stable in 2024, and this stability could continue in 2025 under a few conditions.
Focusing on China is the most remarkable reason for this abnormal stability in oil prices. Every single report focused on Chinese economic data in the last year. This stability is going to continue in 2025 and a bunch of reports are going to predict high oil demand for the world’s biggest importer.
Factors that influence the oil market can effectively change the trends of bitumen prices. Thus, due to the factors referred to above, the bitumen trend in 2025 will be approximately steady.
