Freights and GRI Outlook
Generally speaking, the market was stormy at the start of the week, with the
IME observing 22 percent competition on VB by Bandar Abbas refineries,
but after that, a downward trend in VB competition was observed, which
can be attributed to the start of Diwali in India, buyers’ rejection of the
FOB price of 500 US dollars, and refineries’ delays in delivering vacuum bottom.
In fact, they estimated the difference between the highest and lowest
FOB prices in the market to be around $50 per ton.
Following the shipping lines’ official announcement of the new GRI, another
piece of news was released stating that revisions had been made
and the applicable GRI had been lowered slightly. However, the lack of
vessel space continues to cause congestion at Bandar Abbas port, and
cargoes are being delivered with delays caused by the shipping line
due to vessel space and container shortages.
During the week, the political tensions between Iran and the
United States remained high. In other words, if Iran does not
return to the negotiating table sooner, Joe Biden has threatened
to work on other solutions, which will have a direct impact on the
Iranian exchange rate market. On the other hand, new tensions have
arisen between Iran and the United States over an oil tanker in Oman,
and we will wait to see what impact this incident has on Iran’s economic situation in the short and long term.
Oil Tensions
On November 4, OPEC held its 22nd meeting. We will fix the current portion
of the oil supply until the next meeting on December 2, so oil prices will
probably remain stable in the 80 US dollar range. However, the price of
crude oil fluctuated between 80 and 82 dollars. Surprisingly, India raised
bitumen prices to 66 US dollars on November 1, and because this
announcement almost coincided with India’s Diwali holiday, the market
was relatively quiet. In fact, it is expected that the same increase will
be implemented on November 16 as well.
Nonetheless, it is possible to conclude that increasing factors are
outnumbering decreasing ones. The bitumen market, on the other hand,
is rife with sudden shifts.
