Trump’s return has driven strong demand for vacuum bottom in Iran, raising bitumen prices to a 16-month high. This trend may continue through 2024, especially if Iran-Israel tensions rise.
The most significant news of the week was Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, marking his second term as president. This win is a major achievement for the Republican Party, which invested a year into Trump’s campaign.
On November 6, the Chinese metal exchange dropped by 3%, reflecting concerns over potential new tariffs and retaliatory actions against China with Trump’s return to office. Following the final election results and Trump’s victory, gold prices began a downward trend, falling to $2,680.
In parallel with the U.S. election, Israel’s Prime Minister dismissed his defense minister, Gallant, a move interpreted as a signal to continue their military strategy with heightened intensity.
Analysts suggest that Trump’s plans to bring an end to the Ukraine–Russia conflict before he assumes office on January 20, 2025, could lead to significant shifts in prices, especially in the gold market.
There is also uncertainty regarding Trump’s stance on continuing the trade war with China. His next likely move is a change in U.S. interest rates, which could have broad implications. Given these developments, we can expect numerous changes in the coming three months. On Thursday, crude oil prices reached $75, remaining stable within this range. Singapore’s 180CST closed at $461.
Bitumen prices in Singapore and South Korea settled at $457 and $430, respectively. In Bahrain, the price remained steady at $395 for another week. In Europe, bitumen prices saw an increase, closing between $450 and $500. Following a $17 increase on November 1, India is anticipating another price surge by mid-November.
- Global Market Affected by the USA Election
With Trump’s return to the White House, and despite the dollar’s sharp rise against the rial in Iran, competition for vacuum bottom intensified, driving bitumen prices to their highest levels in 16 months. This trend is expected to continue in Iran through the end of 2024. If tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, further impacts on bitumen prices are likely.
