On June 5th, the base price of vacuum bottoms in Iran fell marginally, implying that the price of Iranian bitumen might reach its lowest level by the start of 2023.
Although Saudi Arabia voluntarily announced production cuts at the last OPEC meeting, oil prices did not rise again, with Brent trading in a range of $72-76. On Wednesday, new reports emerged that the United States intends to increase crude oil production. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects OPEC production cuts to lead to a slight decrease in global crude stockpiles and thereby increase global crude prices in late 2023 and early of 2024.
While the US media and politicians focused heavily on inflation and rising prices, May’s job creation report surprised the country’s economists. According to official reports, the US market added 339,000 jobs last month, far exceeding expectations. But even if it creates a lot of jobs, it won’t be the driving force behind the rise in oil prices.
Some analysts believe that China’s weak economic data has cast a shadow over the global economy and that the risk of a serious economic crisis is much greater than previously thought.
Meanwhile, the Venezuelan president’s visit to Saudi Arabia, following the kingdom’s reconciliation with China and the establishment of diplomatic relations with Iran, signals a shift in the balance of power in the Middle East. The development has also raised concerns in the United States and could lead to changes in the region’s political and trade equations in the near future.
Singapore HSFO 180 CST prices rose about $21 in the first three days of the week, while Singapore bitumen traded around $469 on Wednesday, down $5. Korean Bitumen is also trading at $395.
The situation in Bahrain has been the same for the past two months, with Bahrain bitumen trading at $370. However, the situation in India suddenly changed and the amount of bitumen at two refineries in India fell to around $22 on June 7, which is not surprising given the arrival of the monsoons in most parts of India, but the sudden shutdown of these two refineries were surprising.
Vacuum bottom price in Iran
In Iran, the base price of VB fell slightly on June 5, causing the price of Iranian bitumen to reach an early 2023 low and the competition rate among refineries to less of 60%, which added pressure on Iran’s exports of bitumen.
Moreover, ongoing negotiations between Iran and the United States and the creation of more room for negotiation have pushed the parity of the US dollar against the Iranian rial to near three-month lows. As a result, exporters fear that falling oil prices will cause them to lose market share, making the market almost uncertain.
