Despite the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel and the fluctuations in currency exchange rates, the market’s attention on competition and the risks in the Middle East suggests that prices will continue to rise
Over the past week, the majority of international commodity markets saw an increase in prices, partly due to anticipation of a forthcoming interest rate reduction in the United States. Additionally, the most recent employment report from the U.S. indicates a favorable employment situation within the country.
Despite various disruptions such as the fire at a Mexican oil platform, attacks on Russian oil refineries by Ukraine, production halts at certain refineries, and heightened security concerns following Iran’s reaction to Israel’s consulate attack, Brent crude oil managed to maintain stability around $90 per barrel.
The heightened security concerns surrounding Iran’s first attempt to attack Israel led to significant tension in the region. Most of Iran’s international flights are canceled at the moment.
Morgan Stanley Bank adjusted its forecast for crude oil prices in the third quarter of 2024, raising it by $4 per barrel due to diminishing optimism regarding peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Additionally, the decision by OPEC and OPEC+ countries to maintain the existing production reduction plan further influenced the bank’s prediction.
On April 8, this American bank attributed the recent price surge to escalating geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions, emphasizing it as an unequivocal and unavoidable factor.
In the past week, Singapore’s 180 CST experienced notable increases, reaching $506 USD. Bitumen prices settled at $410 USD in Singapore and $400 USD in South Korea on Tuesday.
Similarly, Bahrain saw stable bitumen prices at $380 USD. In Europe, prices ranged from $470 to $510 USD during the week, showing some increases.
Despite upcoming elections and financial constraints, India anticipates a $6-7 USD rise in bitumen prices on April 15, indicating market strengthening despite challenges for Indian importers.
Iran Israel Conflict
Last night, Iran launched several missiles on Israel as a response to Israeli strike on Tehran’s embassy in Syria. The market’s response to competition and price increases appears more serious than before.
Overall, it seems the price rally will persist, driven by increases in most commodities and oil prices, alongside heightened risks in the Middle East.
