Will Bitumen Price Break Its Record in November 2021?
Observing what happened last week, we can say that the current major concern of traders and importers is whether the price of bitumen will reach the same price level as in November 2021.
Generally speaking, the crude and Brent tournament seems to continue uninterrupted
after the Houthi movement has attacked the outskirts of Abu Dhabi over the past seven years.
Other reasons for such unprecedented records could include geopolitical risks
such as the “crisis between Ukraine and Russia” and the “Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline explosion.”
Companies such as OPEC the International Energy Agency and analysts in
the oil and commodities markets are also expecting $100 channels for crude oil.
Moreover, Market exchange rates are still on a downtrend due to improved nuclear negotiations and flexibility on both sides.
Up to 27.6% vacuum competition was observed on January 17, 2022, in Bandar Abbas,
and the rise in bitumen prices was significant, as predicted by our team over the past four weeks.
Based on the above facts, we can conclude that some trader and buyer concerns
do not seem to be true as the reason for the sudden price cut in November.
It’s also worth noting that 2021 was an eruption of a variant of Omicron, which was feared as an unknown variant.
At that time, oil prices fell by 20% within 10 days but did not erupt significantly in Asia, as they are still involved in the Delta variety.
In addition, that is why the number of cases in Asia is significantly lower than in the United States and Europe.
Indian refineries:
We expect Indian refineries to adjust rates for the global market,
with both Singapore and Bahrain raising bitumen rates due to crude oil conditions, raising about Rs 3,000 by February 1, 2022.
The IME is also expected to announce a new base price for vacuum bottoms with a noticeable jump,
and there is no serious threat of falling interest rates in Iran.
In fact, we can conclude that the current range of crude oil is stable and valid and that the current range of Iran’s bitumen prices will continue.
The Turning Point of Base Oil and Lubricant
On the other hand, the base oil market was almost steady last week and might find more stability in the next few days.
The conditions of the base oil market have been better than the same time last year
when there was a shortage of production and a sharp rise in prices.
With growing tensions in the Middle East and the recent Houthi invasion of Yemen,
the oil price has risen to the highest level since 2014.
Research on a better situation of omicron variant and lower risk
of the virus might upward pressure prices in the coming weeks.
In sum, in India, the abundance of domestic products and imports continues to hold expectations for lower prices.
As a matter of fact, we cannot expect a reduction in base oil products and lubricants despite the rising production, logistics, and shipping costs.
Increasing seasonal demand for base oils and lubricants also provided greater support for price growth in India.
