Iran faces tough conditions as the New Year and Ramadan approach, with increased export pressure.
The US vetoed the Algerian resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire between Gaza and Israel at the Security Council. The vote saw 13 in favor, 1 abstention (the UK), and the US voting against it, marking the third time the US has vetoed such a resolution. Meanwhile, a former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief warned that if Hamas fails to release all Israeli hostages by March 10th, Israel will launch an attack on Rafah.
On another front, Japan and Great Britain both experienced negative GDP growth, following Germany’s lead. However, the economic situations in China and the USA appear to be divergent. Reports from America suggest economic improvement, with the possibility of an interest rate reduction in March. In China, most future commodity transactions turned positive after the Lunar New Year holidays, leading to a 4.2% increase in crude oil prices to 590 Yuan per barrel. However, the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain.
On February 22nd, Brent crude oil surged past $83 as investors reacted to Red Sea attacks and the potential for US interest rate cuts. Vandana Hari, a market analyst at Vandana Insights Institute, predicts that crude oil prices will likely remain within the same range until the next significant event in the Gaza crisis, whether it leads to tension reduction through a ceasefire or heightened attacks.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday, Singapore’s 180 CST dropped by $3 to $447, while its bitumen price remained steady at $430. South Korea’s bitumen price held at $410, and Bahrain’s remained unchanged at $360, consistent with previous weeks.
In Europe, bitumen prices fluctuated between $430 and $460. On February 15, India saw its bitumen price rise for the second consecutive time, increasing by $9.5. Given the intense competition in India, a slight uptick in bitumen prices is anticipated on March 1st.
New Year & Ramadan Approach in Iran
As New Year and Ramadan approach in Iran, challenges have intensified. Concerns about changes in ocean freight, container shortages, and customer pressure to receive shipments before the New Year have boosted export demand, similar to previous years. There was minimal competition among refineries for VB purchases, and the US dollar strengthened against the Iranian Rial. Overall, Iran’s market direction closely tracks demand volume and oil prices.
