In this article, we will discuss the items that will affect the concept of ” Buy bitumen ” and the oil market in 2020-21. The first variable is the USA’s election. Let’s explore more in this regard.
What is the S&P Index & how it will affect the notion of ” Buy bitumen ” ?
Goldman Sachs, the world’s largest investment bank,
has shown in an analysis that the performance of the US stock market in the months leading up to the
US presidential election to date has been a good indicator for predicting the winner. Now, here comes this question: What is the S&P Index?
S&P 500; The Standard and Poor’s Index lists the top 500 companies on the US stock market (New York and Nasdaq / NASDAQ). This index uses the risk and return of large companies to assess the overall performance of the stock market. In fact, the “average performance” is a basket of stocks of the top 500 companies in the US stock market.
To be more specific, the S&P 500 is the largest U.S. stock index after the Dow Jones Industrial Average,
one of the most well-known in the world. Dow Jones also shows the stock performance of 30 major US economic companies. Additionally, among the top companies in the S&P 500 index are Apple,
Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet, J. Morgan (JP Morgan Chase & Co), Netflix, Exxon Mobil Corp., etc.
How do the stock market and the S&P 500 index perform in the US election?
You may come up with the question that how will investors use the S&P 500 index to
determine the winner of the US election on November 3, 2020? Simply, by following the price trends in the stock market,
three months before the elections!
In fact, the historical trend in the relationship between the “stock market” and the “US presidential election”
shows that, when the performance of this index is high three months before this event, the ruling White House party will win the
elections again, and if this index is low, there is a better chance.
This prediction is such that in 2016, few people thought that Donald Trump could win,
and the only one who knew the probability of this victory was the stock market.To examine the performance and impact of the stock market before the presidential election,
Barron’s prestigious economic magazine has looked at the performance of the S&P 500 index in
the 100 days leading up to election day (November 3) since 1980.
What has been achieved is that in 80% of the cases,
this index has grown in the election years and the non-election years. Moreover, in the late summer and early autumn,
it has grown only 60%.
According to a report published by the large investment company, Dimensional Funds in 2019,
the stock market had a positive performance in 19 out of 23 cases between 1928 and 2016,
and this turnover was negative in only 4 election years. Yet to say, all these affect the notion of ” Buy bitumen ” someways.
What is the current state of the S&P 500 and how it affects the oil market and Buy bitumen concept?
The first three months of the year were so uncertain under the outbreak of the Coronavirus that many firms around
the world refused to provide their usual guidance on the future earnings of the firm, which was the first time in some places. Besides, analysts lowered earnings forecasts with a complete distrust of milestones,
But the companies’ latest quarterly report justified some of the optimism.
What we conclude is that in the current market of electoral speculation, economic strategists such
as the experts of LPL Financial Holding (the largest independent brokerage firm in the United States) look at the stock market performance rather than the usual statistics and polls
to determine the outcome of the US presidential election. That is to say, the performance of the S&P 500 index,
three months before the US presidency, has been able to accurately predict the final result of 87% of the time since
1928 and since 1984.
According to the US Bureau of Economic Research,
the coronavirus epidemic caused the worst economic downturn in the country in the second quarter of this year,
and GDP, which is an indicator of economic activity in the country, fell by 33% compared to the same period last year.
It’s worth mentioning that the S&P 500 index at the end of last month (July) was able to record
5.5% growth and the successful performance of technology giants, another important index of the stock market;
Nasdaq Composite up 6.8%; while investors still look at the country’s poor economic situation in general
and how it affects the capital market, oil, and Buy bitumen.
As noted in this article, Wall Streeters and big business owners are worried about
Joe Biden coming to power in the upcoming US election. Biden’s economic stance has identified him as an anti-Wall Street figure;
A person who intends to enforce his desired tax justice and stop implementing the corporate tax reduction policy implemented by
Donald Trump by collecting more taxes from the big American companies that are
currently carrying the main burden of the growth of the New York Stock Exchange indexes.
According to his proposed plan, boosting clean energy production,
easing rules and regulations will deal a major blow to the growing US oil and gas industry and Buy bitumen. That is why the US oil industry seems to be supporting Trump in the 2020 US election.For more information about latest bitumen price and order now you can contact us