After a few weeks of tracking an upward trend in Brent crude oil prices, they experienced a decline below the 90 USD mark. Even the OPEC+ meeting held on Wednesday, which focused on prior agreements to decrease production levels, did not succeed in pushing oil prices back above 90 USD.
The primary causes behind this drop can be linked to the strengthening of the US dollar, the potential for another increase in interest rates, and reduced demand from traders. It appears that crude oil would need a fresh catalyst, whether from increased demand or changes in supply, to surpass the 100 USD threshold.
In an interview with BBC, the Secretary General of OPEC stated that a drop in crude oil prices is not expected to occur in the near future. He also asserted that the decision by OPEC members to reduce production until the end of the next year could potentially result in a significant shortage of oil supply in the global market, causing crude oil prices to surpass 100 USD.
Simultaneously, City Group offered a contrasting view, predicting that the global market would trend upward with a downward trajectory for crude oil prices. They estimate an average price of 82 USD for crude oil in the fourth quarter of this year, with a projected price of 74 USD for 2024.
Amidst the recent decline in crude oil prices, Singapore’s HSFO CST180 settled at 490 USD, with bulk bitumen prices in Singapore reaching 515 USD. South Korea’s bitumen price stands at 430 USD. Bahrain’s bitumen price remains stable at 440 USD, while European markets are experiencing rates ranging from 550 to 600 USD.
On October 1st, bitumen prices in India rose by 11 USD. There was an expectation of another increase in mid-October, but now it’s uncertain whether this anticipated rise will materialize in light of the recent drop in crude oil prices.
In Iran, bitumen prices have remained largely unchanged, and the short-term effects of the decline in crude oil prices in this market are not yet evident, though significant price fluctuations have not been observed thus far.
This article was prepared by Shirin Yousefi, the Content specialist and market analyst of Infinity Galaxy